‘The worst is over’ for Alberta’s economy

A rebuild following a devastating fire.

And a rebound from a crude oil “fire sale,” so to speak.

Those two factors will help transform Alberta’s economy into the strongest in Canada for 2017, predicts the Conference Board of Canada in its quarterly provincial outlook for winter 2017.

Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017, thanks to:

• Higher crude oil production in the face of a strengthening price outlook, after a two-year-long market plunge; and
• Construction activity in Fort McMurray, following last spring’s terrible wildfire, which will add 0.4% to the province’s projected growth.

“Following two tough years stemming from widespread weakness in the energy sector, Alberta’s economy finds itself with the strongest economic growth this year,” predicts Marie-Christine Bernard, an associate director with the independent Ottawa-based applied research organization.

While Alberta’s economy won’t rebound overnight, says Bernard, “the recent stability in oil prices has encouraged optimism that the worst is over, laying the foundation for a modest gradual recovery in capital spending in the energy sector.”

The Conference Board of Canada also says Ontario and British Columbia, Canada’s economic leaders in 2016, will lose some momentum but continue on a positive path, with 2.0% and 1.9% GDP growth in 2017, respectively.

Quebec’s GDP will also grow by 1.9%. Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province that won’t see positive economic growth in 2017.

The executive summary for the Provincial Outlook: Winter 2017 is available online.

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