Carbon emissions remain flat in the face of world’s growing economy

Data shows an ‘emerging trend’ and a ‘cause for optimism,’ says IEA boss

Flatlining emissions. A growing economy.

Call it an “emerging trend,” says the head of the International Energy Agency.

The IEA announced in mid-March that worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remained steady for a third straight year in 2016, in the face of a growing global economy.

“These three years of flat emissions in a growing global economy signal an emerging trend—and that is certainly a cause for optimism, even if it is too soon to say that global emissions have definitely peaked,” says IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

Factors contributing to this leveling-off emissions trend included:

• Declining emissions in the United States and China, the world’s two largest energy users and emitters;
• Renewables accounting for 50% of global electricity demand growth overall;
• The largest increase in nuclear net capacity since 1993;
• More electricity generation from natural gas than coal, for the first time, in the U.S.

Improvements in energy efficiency and structural changes in the global economy also played a role in flatlining emissions.

“They are also a sign that market dynamics and technological improvements matter,” says Birol. “This is especially true in the United States, where abundant shale gas supplies have become a cheap power source.”

China’s electricity demand growth was supported largely by renewables—namely hydro, wind and nuclear, which made a 25% gain in the country with five new reactors being connected to the grid.

“In China, as well as in India, the growth in natural gas is significant, reflecting the impact of air-quality measures to fight pollution as well as energy diversification,” says Birol.

“The share of gas in the global energy mix is close to a quarter today—but in China it’s 6%, and in India just 5%, which shows they have a large potential to grow.”

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